August 14th, 2025 - Why Putin Believes Russia Holds the Advantage

Vladimir Putin exuded an air of self-assurance when discussing the ongoing war in Ukraine, reflecting the growing confidence he feels due to Russia's military resurgence. At an economic forum in June, Putin taunted the Ukrainian government, claiming that the Russian forces were gaining the upper hand and warning that Ukraine’s resistance would only make things worse. "Wherever a Russian soldier sets his foot, it’s ours," he declared, confidently asserting that the war was Russia’s to win.

This renewed confidence comes after Russia’s military made significant strides in retooling and mobilizing its forces. In the early stages of the war, Russia’s military struggled with poor equipment and disorganization, while Ukraine’s tactical advantage—leveraging precision strikes and hit-and-run strategies—made Russian forces seem vulnerable. However, Putin redirected the full weight of the Russian state into the war effort, restructuring the military and the economy to better support the war. By revamping recruitment, expanding weapons production, and refining battlefield tactics, Russia now has a greater ability to endure this protracted conflict.

The war of attrition, as it stands, seems to favor Russia. With greater resources and manpower, Russia is steadily advancing on a broad front. While Ukraine and its Western allies hope to outlast Russia’s resources, the battle lines continue to inch forward, strengthening Putin’s resolve to press on until he secures a peace deal that serves Russia’s interests. Despite mounting casualties, Russia is adapting, and its troops are making small but consistent gains along the 750-mile front.

However, the war is far from without its challenges for Russia. Its elite forces have been decimated, and many of its military factories still depend on dwindling Soviet-era components and foreign imports. Economically, the strain is palpable, with cracks starting to show in the Russian economy, despite vast military spending. Nonetheless, Putin is confident that he can outlast Ukraine, positioning himself to secure a peace deal that solidifies his legacy and secures Russia’s territorial ambitions, including control over the four regions Moscow has annexed. Putin has been unyielding, reiterating that his demands for Ukraine to remain neutral—especially regarding NATO—remain non-negotiable.

To ensure the success of his military efforts, Putin has relied on substantial financial incentives to boost recruitment. While the average Russian salary is $900 per month, soldiers can earn up to $2,450, along with generous bonuses for recruitment, capturing military equipment, and even destroying enemy assets. These payments have made military service increasingly appealing, especially to those at the margins of Russian society. This strategy has helped stabilize Russia’s recruitment efforts, with approximately 1,000 soldiers joining the army daily. Even with this influx, the quality of soldiers has diminished, with many conscripts now older and less experienced.

In addition to recruitment, Russia has vastly increased its military production, focusing heavily on drones and other modern weaponry. Russian drone capabilities have grown rapidly, with the country now producing more than 80 drones per day, up from a few dozen earlier in the conflict. These drones, particularly the Geran-2, have become a key part of Russia’s strategy, inflicting damage on Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets. Russia’s drone production facility in Yelabuga has become a central hub for this effort, and the expanded use of these drones has allowed Russia to significantly ramp up its nightly bombing campaigns, showing how industrial capacity and military innovation are central to Russia’s strategy for outlasting Ukraine and its allies.

While Russia continues to gain ground, the war remains deeply costly. The increasing number of drone strikes, new tactics on the battlefield, and improved military coordination indicate that Russia is adapting quickly. However, the strain on Russia’s resources—both human and industrial—may eventually catch up with it. Despite Putin’s confidence, the war shows no clear signs of resolution, and both Russia and Ukraine face significant challenges as the conflict rages on.

Word of the Day (Merriam-Webster) - Immutable (adj, ih-MYOO-tuh-bul) - Immutable is a formal adjective used to describe something that is unable to be changed.

Example: It is hardly an immutable fact that cats and dogs are sworn enemies; over the years our golden retriever has grown both fond and protective of her tabby housemate.