September 11th, 2025 - Russia's Strategy: Gradual Escalation to Test the West's Response

An American factory in western Ukraine. Two European diplomatic compounds and a key Ukrainian government building in Kyiv. And now Poland. Over roughly three weeks, Russian drones and missiles have struck sites of increasing sensitivity for Ukraine and its Western allies, culminating in a volley of drones that buzzed early Wednesday over Poland, a NATO member.

For decades, American and European military planners feared a sudden, catastrophic strike from the Soviet Union or Russia—an all-out nuclear attack. Instead, in its war on Ukraine, Russia has pushed boundaries gradually, testing responses and blunting pushback by escalating slowly while maintaining some deniability, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts.

The drones that crossed into Poland triggered NATO to send warplanes to intercept them, marking the first direct engagement of alliance troops with Russian weaponry since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Previous attacks, however, had drawn little more than strongly worded statements from European and U.S. officials, leaving it uncertain whether Russia would face any real consequences for violating Polish airspace.

“Russian drones flying into Poland during the massive attack on Ukraine show that Putin’s sense of impunity keeps growing,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said, referring to President Vladimir V. Putin. “He was not properly punished for his previous crimes.” European Union ambassador Katarina Mathernova added that the Russian leader has grown “emboldened,” citing his continued military assaults following a summit with President Trump in Alaska last month.

Analysts note that Russia is operating near the limits of its conventional military capacity in Ukraine, leaving little room for escalation in purely military terms. But symbolic actions—attacks on Western assets in Ukraine or drone flights across a NATO border—allow Russia to test defenses and signal strength while leaving room for doubt about intent. Recent strikes on an American-owned factory, European Union and British Council offices, and Kyiv’s Cabinet of Ministers illustrate this pattern.

The American factory damaged in western Ukraine produced coffee machines, though other facilities like it also make military equipment. European diplomatic offices in Kyiv were hit by missiles that targeted nearby buildings rather than the sites themselves, while Ukrainian officials debated whether a missile that set fire to the Cabinet of Ministers building was accidental or deliberate. And after drones entered Polish airspace, Belarus suggested they had crossed the border unintentionally.

Russia’s strategy of misdirection and denial is long-established. From unmarked troops in Crimea in 2014 to labeling military flights to Syria as humanitarian, Moscow has repeatedly relied on ambiguity to delay or soften Western responses. Polish officials dismissed Russia’s denials after Wednesday’s drone incursion, while Ukrainian advisers suggested that even unacknowledged attacks could serve a strategic purpose, potentially offering Moscow leverage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

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Example: The local bakery is famous for its wide variety of zoomorphic treats, from “hedgehog” dinner rolls to delicate, swan-shaped pastries.

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