September 12th, 2025 - Brazil’s Ex-President Bolsonaro Convicted of Coup Plot: What Happens Now?

Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced on Thursday to more than 27 years in prison for orchestrating a failed coup attempt after losing the 2022 presidential election, a historic verdict for Latin America’s largest nation. The Supreme Court ruled that Bolsonaro had plotted to overturn the election, weaken the courts, grant special powers to the military, and even assassinate the president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro has denied any involvement in a coup or plans to harm his political rival. He accused Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the trial, of targeting him and his right-wing movement unfairly. Despite the ruling, it remains uncertain whether Bolsonaro will actually serve significant time in prison.

The case represents the first instance in Brazil’s long history of coups where a former leader has been held accountable for attempting to subvert democracy. Bolsonaro’s conviction could further strain diplomatic relations between Brazil and the United States, which have already been tense due to former President Trump’s efforts to support Bolsonaro through tariffs and sanctions.

Bolsonaro can appeal his sentence but not the verdict. His lawyers condemned the ruling as “absurdly excessive and disproportionate” and said they would pursue appeals in both Brazilian and international courts. A five-justice panel oversaw the case, with four voting to convict and one dissenting. Brazilian law prevents a direct appeal to the full Supreme Court unless at least two justices vote for acquittal.

Legal motions can still be filed with the same five justices, potentially reducing the sentence or adjusting how it is applied. The first appeal must be submitted within five days of the official publication of the Supreme Court’s decision, expected within 60 days. Analysts suggest that the dissenting justice’s concerns about the case not being heard by the full bench could provide a technical avenue for appeal, though the conviction is likely to stand.

While Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months, it is unlikely he will spend long behind bars. He is already under house arrest with an ankle monitor and is considered a flight risk. His lawyers are expected to argue for home detention due to his health issues stemming from a 2018 campaign stabbing. Previous Brazilian presidents, including Lula and Fernando Collor, have faced prison but served part of their sentences at home because of health considerations.

The ruling could further test U.S.-Brazil relations. Former President Trump had pressured Brazil to drop the case, imposing tariffs and sanctions that affected trade and key industries. Following Bolsonaro’s conviction, Trump criticized the decision and labeled it political persecution, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised U.S. retaliation. President Lula, meanwhile, said Brazil is prepared to respond if necessary and emphasized that no country should interfere in Brazil’s sovereign decisions. The Brazilian government is already taking steps to mitigate U.S. punitive measures and strengthen trade ties with countries like India, Mexico, and China.

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