October 27th, 2025 - Is the U.S. Losing Ground in Vietnam as Russia, North Korea, and China Gain Influence?

Vietnam's evolving geopolitical strategy highlights its balancing act between the United States, Russia, and China. While President Trump has long focused on holding China accountable for its unfair trade practices, Vietnam has struggled to navigate its relationships with both Washington and Moscow. The U.S. had hoped to seal military deals, like the sale of C-130s, with Vietnam, marking a shift away from Russia. However, as of now, Vietnam is deepening its military ties with Moscow, increasing its reliance on Russian weaponry, including air-defense systems and advanced submarines. These actions send a clear message that, while Washington remains a major player in the region, Vietnam is wary of being overly dependent on the U.S. amidst the ongoing superpower rivalry between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.

Despite this, Vietnam has been receptive to U.S. economic interests, with the Trump Organization seeing success in the country’s investments. Vietnam's trade relationship with the U.S. has been lucrative, and Hanoi has taken steps to assure President Trump that it is committed to maintaining a stable trade relationship, especially with the promise to curtail Chinese illegal export practices. However, the uncertainty of U.S. tariffs and the inconsistency of American foreign policy under the Biden administration have left Vietnam seeking more clarity and stability. This has created a significant challenge for Vietnam, as it attempts to manage its relations with both Russia and the U.S.

The tension is palpable, and it is clear that Vietnam’s actions are not motivated by blind allegiance to any single country. It is a pragmatic approach to protecting its national interests. In recent years, Vietnam has faced a tough decision: align more closely with the U.S., as President Trump had hoped, or continue its historical and strategic relationship with Russia. Russia’s support is deeply embedded, and the partnership remains essential to Vietnam's defense capabilities, especially as China’s influence in the region grows. Moscow continues to push its military and technological support to Vietnam, further cementing the bilateral ties.

President Trump’s administration has not been shy about applying pressure on Vietnam with trade negotiations, tariffs, and military equipment discussions. However, some analysts believe that the U.S. has not fully capitalized on the opportunities presented by Vietnam’s desire to diversify its defense sources. For instance, while discussions about the sale of F-16s and other American defense systems were ongoing, the realities of the complex geopolitical dynamics have prevented progress. Vietnam’s hesitations are fueled by its need to balance the power dynamics in Asia, where China’s growing military presence and Russia’s ongoing influence play a significant role.

Amid these power struggles, President Putin has worked to reinforce his influence over Vietnam. In recent high-level meetings, Russia has shown no signs of slowing its defense cooperation with Hanoi. During his visit in 2024, Putin underscored Russia’s commitment to Vietnam’s defense, signaling that Moscow is more than willing to work around sanctions to continue its military sales to Vietnam. This has been a major setback for U.S. interests, especially considering that Vietnam has strategically positioned itself as a buffer state in Southeast Asia, a key player in maintaining stability in the region.

Looking ahead, it’s clear that the future of U.S.-Vietnam relations will be shaped by several factors, including President Trump’s foreign policy stance and Vietnam’s desire for military and economic independence. With the U.S. and China locked in a fierce rivalry, Vietnam’s leaders are keenly aware of the power they hold in choosing sides—something they will continue to navigate carefully. Trump’s approach, which focuses on securing strong, bilateral agreements while asserting economic pressure on adversaries, will likely continue to shape Vietnam’s calculus as it weighs its options in the coming years.

Vietnam’s strategic outlook is a testament to its desire to chart its own path in a world where superpower competition continues to define global diplomacy. As the U.S. takes a tougher stance on China and Russia, Vietnam, like many nations, will be forced to make decisions that balance national security concerns with economic growth and regional stability. For now, it remains clear that Vietnam’s future will be molded by pragmatic choices, but with the U.S. and Russia each vying for influence, the stakes are higher than ever before.

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